R-26EVIDENCE
Research · The evidence library
Every number we cite, on the record
No invented statistics, no unattributed claims. Every figure on this site lives here with its source and date. When the evidence updates, this page updates — the log is at the bottom.
§ 01CHART
The hidden debt timeline · 2020–2026
Refactoring collapsed. Duplication took its place.
Duplicated code blocks (indexed, 2020 = 1×)Refactoring share of all changes
Source: GitClear analysis of 211M changed lines (Google, Microsoft, Meta & enterprise repos, 2020–2024); trajectory extended per GitClear 2025 reporting. Milestones: Copilot GA (2022) · ChatGPT (Nov 2022) · agentic coding tools (2024–25).
§ 02LIBRARY
The evidence, sourced and dated
The library
| Figure | Claim | Source · date |
|---|---|---|
| ~41% | Share of committed code that is AI-assisted. | Stack Overflow Developer Survey · 2025 |
| 84% | Developers using or planning to use AI coding tools. | Stack Overflow Developer Survey · 2025 |
| 8× | Increase in duplicated code blocks; copy-paste exceeded refactoring for the first time on record. | GitClear, 211M changed lines · 2025 |
| 25% → <10% | Collapse of refactoring as a share of all code changes, 2021–2024. | GitClear · 2025 |
| ~45% | Rate at which AI-generated code introduces security vulnerabilities — flat across model generations. | Veracode GenAI Code Security Report · 2025 |
| 80–100% | AI-generated repositories exhibiting recurring architectural anti-patterns. | Ox Security, 300-repo study · Oct 2025 |
| 66% | Developers spending more time fixing "almost-right" AI code. | Stack Overflow · 2025 |
| 15–50% | Additional defect load carried by cloned code. | Research literature via GitClear · 2025 |
| 2–4× | Typical multiple of original build time to production-harden AI-generated prototypes. | Practitioner reporting, cleanup-market accounts · 2025–26 |
| 10.3% | Analyzed deployments on one AI app platform leaking PII, financial records, or live API keys (CVE-2025-48757). | Janea Systems analysis · May 2026 |
| 1 in 5 | Strategic dealmakers who walked away from a deal over AI-related concerns about the target. | 2026 dealmaker survey via L40° · 2026 |
| ~1/3 | Deals collapsing at the final diligence hurdle, increasingly on preventable gaps. | Startups Magazine · Jul 2026 |
| +77% | Growth in tech M&A value, 2025 — within a $4.9T total market, up 40%. | Bain 2026 M&A Report |
| Standard | "Has proprietary code been generated by third-party systems?" now on PE diligence checklists; absent documentation is itself a material finding. | Mayer Brown, PE deal-risk guidance · May 2026 |
§ 03REPORT
Flagship report
The State of AI-Generated Code Risk in Diligence, 2026
The synthesis: what the evidence says, what diligence teams are changing, what founders should fix first, and the benchmark patterns emerging from our audit corpus. Updated quarterly.
UPDATE LOG · JUL 2026 — library established; timeline chart added. Corrections welcome: audits@ingenize.com